esitalmostimpoibleto
detecttheleveragewhichwecanuse"inthere"onproblemsthatstraddletheboundarybetweenusand"outthere".
3.theillusionoftakingcharge
(缺乏整体思考的主动积极)
being"proactive"isinvogue.managersfrequentlyproclaimtheneedfortakingchargeinfacingdifficultproblems.whatistypicallymeantbythisisthatweshouldfaceuptodifficultiues,stopwaitingforsomeoneelsetodosomething,andsolveproblemsbeforetheygrowintocrises.in
particular,beingproactiveisfrequentlyseenasanantidotetobeing"reactive"--waitinguntilasituationgetsoutofhandbeforetakingastep.butistakingaggreiveactionagaitanexternalenemyreallysynonymouswithbeingproactive?
nottoolongago,amanagementteaminaleadingpropertyandliabilityiurancecompanywithwhomwewereworkinggotbittenbytheproactivenebug.theheadoftheteam,atalentedvicepresidentforclaims,wasabouttogiveaeechproclaimingthatthecompanywa'tgoingtogetpushedaroundanymorebylawyerslitigatingmoreandmoreclaimssettlements.thefirmwouldbeefupitsownlegalstaffsothatitcouldtakemorecasesthroughtotrialbyverdict,iteadofsettlingthemoutofcourt.
thenweandsomemembersoftheteambegantolookmoresystemicallyattheprobableeffectsoftheidea:thelikelyfractionofcasesthatmightbewonincourt,thelikelysizeofcaseslost,themonthlydirectandoverheadcostsregardleofwhowonorlost,andhowlongcaseswouldprobablystayinlitigation.(thetoolweusedis"microw
orlds")interestingly,theteam'sscenariospointedtoincreasingtotalcostsbecause,giventhequalityofinvestigationdoneinitiallyonmostclaims,thefirmsimplycouldnotwinenoughofit